The XRP Ledger is exhibiting indicators of weakening consumer engagement regardless of rising optimism across the approval of a spot XRP ETF. The variety of day by day lively addresses has declined sharply from a excessive of over 110,000 in January 2025 to fewer than 30,000 in June — a 75% drop over 5 months.
XRP Community Exercise Returns to Pre-Rally Ranges
Again in January, XRP’s lively deal with depend surged to its highest stage in years. On the time, the asset had simply crossed $1.50 and was using a wave of optimism following Ripple’s regulatory victories and hypothesis about broader institutional adoption. However 5 months later, the hype on-chain has pale.
Every day deal with exercise is now again to ranges seen in early 2023—when XRP was nonetheless buying and selling underneath $0.40. But, as of press time, the token continues to hover above $2
Whereas total exercise is cooling, massive holders look like positioning for what may come subsequent. Santiment information reveals that wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP have quietly elevated their share of the whole provide—from 10.4% in December to 12.2% right this moment.
In distinction, wallets within the 1M–10M vary have lowered their holdings by over 3% throughout the identical interval. This implies retail and mid-sized gamers are stepping again, whereas whales—typically extra risk-tolerant and longer-term centered—are leaning in.
XRP ETF Hype Driving Value, Not Participation?
One motive XRP’s price has remained resilient regardless of weaker on-chain indicators is rising confidence within the approval of a U.S.-listed spot XRP ETF. In line with Polymarket, odds of an ETF approval by the tip of 2025 have jumped to 92%, up from 70% simply final month.
The surge in optimism follows a string of developments. Asset managers together with Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and 21Shares have filed for XRP ETFs. CME’s launch of XRP futures in mid-Could added to the narrative, and Ripple’s regulatory progress—notably the licensing of RLUSD in Dubai—has helped form the notion of legitimacy.
However sentiment and utilization aren’t the identical factor. Whereas ETF hypothesis is fueling headlines, it hasn’t translated to elevated on-chain demand. The drop in lively addresses reveals that. And with price at present standing on sentiment fairly than utility, any delays or setbacks within the ETF course of may expose structural weak point.
Alternate Exercise Stays Steady
Alternate move information supplies extra proof of cooling market engagement. Binance’s XRP inflows and outflows have each declined since March. That slowdown in exercise aligns with the drop in community utilization and suggests fewer retail members are actively buying and selling or transferring XRP—not less than for now.
Throughout XRP’s temporary rally above $3 earlier this 12 months, each influx and outflow spikes hinted at profit-taking and repositioning. At this time, these flows have stabilized, indicating a wait-and-watch stance throughout the board.
XRP is buying and selling round $2.14, caught under key transferring averages together with the 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMA.
The Relative Power Index (RSI) stays close to 41, hovering simply above oversold territory. Value motion has flattened, quantity has thinned, and momentum indicators aren’t signaling a powerful breakout—but.
That doesn’t essentially level to a breakdown. However within the absence of latest consumers or a elementary uptick in exercise, holding floor turns into more durable to justify, particularly if ETF-related expectations cool off.