Glencore (LSE: GLEN) shares are immediately flying, and no person is extra shocked than me. The FTSE 100 mining large has brought about untold harm to my self-invested private pension, and I used to be starting to lose all hope.

I’ve simply been latest FTSE 100 efficiency figures, and it seems the Glencore share price has jumped greater than 16% in a month. Frankly, I couldn’t inform by my account. I purchased the inventory in July and September 2023, at a mean price of 458p. At in the present day’s 288p, I’m nonetheless down 37%.

Even after this rally, the inventory remains to be down virtually 40% over 12 months. A $1bn share buyback, introduced in February, additionally hasn’t achieved a lot to carry the temper. So what’s behind the sudden outbreak of optimism?

Disappointing outcomes

The corporate’s newest quarterly numbers, revealed on 30 April, had been hardly glowing. Copper manufacturing dropped 30% to 167,900 tonnes, as a result of weaker output at key websites. Nickel fell too, by 21%.

There have been some brilliant spots. Cobalt jumped 44% to 9,500 tonnes, and zinc was up 4%. Steelmaking coal soared to eight.3m tonnes, boosted by the Elk Valley Assets acquisition. However vitality coal output dipped 7% following deliberate mine closures.

Full-year steering was principally unchanged. That helped regular nerves, however didn’t precisely scream progress. Chief government Gary Nagle flagged continued uncertainty and risky markets, whereas noting that commodity commerce routes had been nonetheless largely intact for now.

Analysts sceptical

On 1 Could, Berenberg trimmed its price goal from 400p to 380p, describing the Q1 replace as a miss. The dealer additionally reduce its 2025 earnings per share forecast by 19%, after adjusting for weaker manufacturing volumes and softer efficiency within the advertising division. It mentioned the market was now frightened about additional dangers to steering.

But Berenberg nonetheless charges the inventory a Purchase. It reckons Glencore wants a robust Q2 and rising coal costs to set off a correct re-rating. I stay cautious. I’m nonetheless a bit shell shocked.

An enormous restoration

On 12 Could, sentiment brightened after indicators of progress between the US and China on commerce. That helped increase confidence throughout the sector, as miners have lengthy benefitted from Chinese language demand. But any restoration in world progress appears to be like fragile. The OECD reduce its world progress forecasts on 3 June, to 2.9% for each 2025 and 2026. That helped knock mining shares once more.

I’m nonetheless in duck and canopy mode however analysts stay surprisingly bullish. Of the 19 who’ve given one-year inventory rankings, 15 name it a Sturdy Purchase. One other two say Purchase. Two say Maintain. Not a single one says Promote. That strikes me as baffling, given latest woes and unsure restoration prospects.

The 16 analysts who’ve issued share price forecasts are much more bullish, with a median goal of just below 377p. That’s a 30% achieve from in the present day and based mostly on present actions might be potential. That might be great if true however I’d nonetheless be within the purple.

Perhaps I’m simply worn down after an extended spell of losses. It’s a cyclical inventory, and cycles often flip in the long run. Contrarian traders would possibly contemplate shopping for whereas it’s nonetheless within the doldrums. For now, I’ll tighten the strap on my tin hat and hope for the very best.