Berkeley Group Holdings (LSE: BKG) posted its newest buying and selling replace on Friday (14 March), and the share price moved up a few p.c in early buying and selling.

The shares had been sliding since final September’s buying and selling replace, although the outlook again then appeared affordable.

December’s interim outcomes didn’t do a lot to assist, as the corporate stated it was “on track to achieve our pre-tax profit guidance of £525 million for the full year and at least £450 million for FY26.” A forecast revenue fall from 2025 to 2026 wasn’t what buyers needed.

Steerage strengthened

Within the newest replace, Berkeley stated it “reaffirms its earnings guidance” at those self same predicted 2025 and 2026 ranges.

The corporate additionally stated it’s “seen the modest enchancment in gross sales reservations that we famous on the time of the interim outcomes proceed via this buying and selling interval with gross sales charges forward of these achieved final 12 months.“

We additionally noticed reward for “the government’s planning reforms and housing delivery ambitions.” The corporate is, nonetheless, involved by the extent and tempo of regulatory adjustments launched following the Grenfell catastrophe. It says the brand new guidelines “place important strain on the supply of recent properties.“

Berkeley appears high quality on liquidity, with “net cash anticipated to be around £300m at 30 April 2025.” It’s down from the £474m reported at 31 October 2024, however plainly’s attributable to land creditor settlements and share buybacks.

And to me, few issues recommend administration confidence greater than a buyback programme.

Rebound possibilities

I see different indicators that the Berkeley Group share price might bounce again in 2025. The present crop of analyst forecasts is one, placing the price-to-earings (P/E) ratio at underneath 10 and with a typically bullish consensus.

The anticipated earnings fall in 2026 is the true fly within the ointment although. And even the modest return to progress pencilled in for 2027 appears too far forward to make a lot distinction proper now.

The forecast dividend yield at lower than 2% doesn’t scream out to revenue buyers. Not less than, not when Taylor Wimpey can boast a forecast 8.3% with Persimmon on 5%.

I do see a bonus for Berkeley. It focuses its improvement totally on comparatively large-scale city redevelopments within the London space. That’s the place I see a housebuilding restoration principally more likely to begin.

And the corporate prioritises brownfield regeneration, with some prime land holdings, and that accounted for 92% of its first-half housing completions. It’s received to be the way in which ahead for city improvement.

Perhaps extra wobbles

In the long run, I’m bullish about Berkeley Group’s future, together with the remainder of the sector. And it does appear to have the money wanted to face up to at this time’s pressures.

Can the share price bounce again this 12 months? I believe it might, if we see the return of financial progress coupled with extra rate of interest cuts. The weaker 12 months forecast for 2026 might maintain the share price down for longer although. And the low dividend is a matter which may maintain some buyers away. Optimistic outlook, however short-term wobbles forward, I think, however positively one to think about.