This FTSE 250 inventory first caught my consideration within the early days of my investing life. Round 15 years in the past, I used to be tempted to purchase rising market-focused funding supervisor Ashmore Group (LSE: ASHM). The BRICs had been in style as traders felt Brazil, Russia, India and China had been about to reshape the worldwide financial system.

That didn’t fairly pan out. The 2008 monetary disaster started within the West however hit rising markets exhausting. Since then, progress has been patchy. Whereas China and India have battled on, Latin America has been inconsistent and Russia is reduce off from Western finance. General, returns haven’t saved tempo with expectations.

That’s been a serious drag on Ashmore. Its shares now commerce at a 10-year low. Over 5 years, they’re down a brutal 65%, together with a 24% fall over the past 12 months alone.

In March, there was a quick flicker of optimism. Dealer UBS upgraded the inventory to from Impartial to Purchase, nudging its price goal up to 180p (it’s just below 144p at present). UBS pointed to bettering fund flows, investor rotation away from US markets, and an interesting valuation.

Hopes of a restoration dashed

It additionally highlighted that institutional allocations to rising market debt and equities had been at multi-decade lows, however that inflows may quickly return. The feelgood issue didn’t final.

A month later, Ashmore revealed a recent spherical of institutional redemptions. Belongings underneath administration fell 5% in Q1 2025 to $46.2bn. Regardless of a optimistic funding efficiency of $1.3bn, the agency noticed $3.9bn pulled out.

The board insisted this wasn’t a part of a broader pattern and mentioned curiosity in its methods stays wholesome. It additionally prompt that rising inventory market volatility, a weaker greenback and shifts in international fiscal coverage may elevate rising markets within the months forward. Hope springs everlasting.

But it’s true that the robust US greenback has inflicted ache on growing nations for years, with many weighed down by dollar-denominated debt. If inflation cools and rates of interest ease, Ashmore’s portfolio efficiency may enhance. These stay large ‘ifs’ although.

Ashmore pays a mighty dividend

The valuation now appears low, with the shares buying and selling on a price-to-earnings ratio simply over 10. That doubtlessly affords scope for development, if we get it.

Whereas ready, traders can pocket an enormous dividend. The yield’s a placing 12%. After all, that comes with threat. The dividend has been frozen at 16.9p for the final 4 years and inflation has taken a chunk out of its actual worth. Nonetheless, it hasn’t been reduce, which is one thing.

The ten analysts at the moment providing 12-month price forecasts have pencilled in a median goal of 152.6p. If right, that’s a modest 6% rise from at present. Mixed with the dividend, the potential whole return edges up to 18%. Not dangerous, if every part goes to plan. There’s an terrible lot of ‘ifs’ on this article although.

Forecasts are not often dependable even in calm markets, by no means thoughts throughout at present’s turbulence. Dividends may be reduce too. Having regarded on the inventory carefully, the valuation, yield and long-term rising markets story are engaging.

However after years as a possible restoration story, I feel solely daring and courageous long-term traders ought to contemplate shopping for Ashmore at present.