Ever because the Rolls-Royce Holdings (LSE: RR.) share price took off final 12 months, I’ve been ready for it to fall again and provides me a less expensive shopping for alternative.

However making an attempt to time issues like that may be a mug’s recreation, and people who purchased in have largely carried out very effectively. Nonetheless, the shares have fallen 10% since their 52-week excessive in June.

What subsequent?

This may simply be a pause forward of first-half outcomes, due on 1 August. What occurs after we see the figures might drive Rolls-Royce shares up additional. If issues are getting into accordance with earlier bullish steering, that’s.

But when there’s a miss? Effectively, there’s an opportunity that may ship the shares additional down into shopping for territory.

One factor’s for certain, there are many folks watching. Investing platform interactive investor says Rolls was its third hottest inventory purchased in June.

These patrons will likely be anticipating good issues, for certain. However what may these issues be?

Rolls-Royce outlook

At FY 2023 outcomes time, CEO Tufan Erginbilgiç was tremendous enthusiastic. He spoke of “unlocking our full potential as a high-performing, competitive, resilient, and growing Rolls-Royce.”

The board gave us steering of £1.7bn-£2.0bn for 2024 working revenue, and put free money move at £1.7bn-£1.9bn.

With 2023 underlying working revenue at £1.6bn, we’re taking a look at an increase of between 6% and 25%, and that’s fairly a variety. I might see buyers disenchanted at simply 6% progress, even when it’s nonetheless inside steering.

The free money move steering suggests an increase of round 30-45% over 2023’s £1.3bn. That may be spectacular, but it surely’s nonetheless a reasonably wide selection.

Uncertainty

At such an early stage, there’s all the time going to be uncertainty in steering figures like these.

However you understand what I feel will likely be within the minds of a variety of Rolls-Royce shareholders? I reckon they’ll expect the highest finish of the vary. They’ll need a minimum of 25% extra working revenue, and received’t be pleased with only a 6% rise.

In Could’s AGM buying and selling replace on 23 Could, the CEO did converse of “additional confidence in our steering for 2024“. And that may certainly cement the optimism.

However have you learnt what I choose? I’d slightly see an organization boss who underpromises and overdelivers. That method, buyers are much less prone to turn out to be too optimistic. And fewer disenchanted if outcomes prove good however not spectacular.

H1 outcomes

What do I anticipate from the upcoming H1 replace? Contemplating how latest the AGM replace was, I believe Rolls will stay bullish about its steering. And we’d not get the massive shopping for dip I’m hoping for.

However I’m going to carry off, as I nonetheless suppose Rolls might stoop if it solely hits the underside finish of these FY expectations.

I’m too risk-averse to purchase Rolls-Royce, a minimum of till it doesn’t make the checklist of most-bought shares on well-liked investing platforms.