A inventory market crash is fall of 20%+ from a earlier market peak. In the meantime, a market correction occurs when share costs slide 10%+ under their former excessive. Proper now, I’m questioning when the US S&P 500 index will enter the latter class?

US markets leap then lose

After Donald Trump gained his second presidential election, US shares soared. On 4 November 2024, the S&P 500 closed at 5,712.69. It then raced upwards, hitting a document excessive of 6,147.43 on 19 February, up 7.6%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index adopted go well with. After closing at 18,179.98 ‎on 4 November, it surged to an all-time excessive of 20,204.58 on 16 December, hovering 11.1% in six weeks.

Each indexes have since retreated from their summits. On Thursday, 6 March, the S&P 500 closed at 5,738.52, down 6.7% from the highest. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 18,069.26 on Thursday, shedding 10.6% from its excessive.

What subsequent?

Observe that the UK’s FTSE 100 index has accomplished significantly better currently than its US counterparts. As I write, the Footsie stands at 8,643.04 factors, down 3% from its recent peak of 8,908.82, hit on 3 March.

Therefore, whereas the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have misplaced all good points made since 4 November, the FTSE 100 is up 5.6% over this era. Inadvertently, plainly President Trump has made British — fairly than US — shares nice once more.

Regardless of these pullbacks, the S&P 500 nonetheless seems to be costly to me. It trades on 23.9 occasions trailing earnings — expensive in each historic and geographical phrases. However except company earnings surge in 2025 (or inventory costs stoop), this index will proceed to seem richly priced for some time.

Will the S&P 500 fall 10%+ from its February peak? For this to happen, it must fall under 5,532.69 factors, which might contain shedding one other 205.83 factors from right here. Provided that this requires solely a 3.6% decline from its present stage, I feel it more and more probably this marker could possibly be breached, probably earlier than mid-March.

Silicon worth

Not too long ago, I’ve been looking for deep worth among the many mega-cap US tech shares often called the Magnificent Seven. My spouse and I already personal 4 of those corporations, having purchased at deep reductions in the course of the market lows of November 2022.

For instance, the share price of Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT) has fallen removed from its summer season highs. On Thursday, this inventory closed at $396.89. This values this tech behemoth at nearly $3trn, making it #2 within the desk of largest US-listed firms.

On 5 July 2024, this inventory hit a document excessive of $468.35, however has since dived nearly 15.3%. Certainly, it’s now inside 4.2% of its 52-week low of $381, recorded simply three days in the past on 4 March. Nevertheless, it’s nonetheless up a market-beating 145.7% over 5 years.

In comparison with the remainder of the ‘Mag 7’, Microsoft inventory seems to be low-cost to me. It trades on underneath 32 occasions earnings and affords a modest dividend yield of 0.8% a 12 months. These fundamentals don’t look too wild for an organization with a protracted, storied historical past of progress.

After all, I could possibly be improper, as Invoice Gates’ child faces many obstacles, together with federal anti-trust probes and shedding clients to smaller, nimbler rivals. However my spouse and I intention to carry onto this S&P 500 inventory for years!