For me, the IAG (LSE: IAG) share price will go down because the one which received away in 2024. I’ve circled the inventory repeatedly over the past 12 months, however by no means screwed up the braveness to hop on board.

With hindsight, I want I had, provided that IAG shares are up a staggering 81.58% over the past 12 months. That makes the British Airways proprietor the FTSE 100‘s fifth-best performer.

On 29 November 2023, I wrote that IAG shares seemed “ridiculously cheap, trading at just 3.8 times forecast 2023 earnings”. As a lover of low-cost shares, I used to be sorely tempted. So what held me again?

Can this FTSE 100 restoration inventory maintain going?

The primary hurdle was its enormous web debt. It stood at a whopping €11.6bn, a legacy of the pandemic, when fleets had been grounded and it needed to borrow arduous simply to remain alive.

IAG hadn’t paid a dividend since Covid struck and whereas CEO Luis Gallego had pledged to renew shareholder payouts as soon as its steadiness sheet and funding plans had been “secure”, he didn’t set a date.

I might see IAG’s potential, even then. Q3 working income had simply jumped 43.5% 12 months on 12 months to €1.75bn with flights at 95.6% capability.

However I made my selection and it’s turned out to be the incorrect one. Right here it’s, in its full glory: “Sorry, but I’m not convinced. IAG remains exposed to oil price uncertainty, economic worries and geopolitical tensions, and there’s no dividend to compensate.”

That sound you may hear is the hole laughter of my pitiful self-loathing.

The world is merrily flying once more, notably in IAG’s core North Atlantic, Latin America, and intra-Europe markets. Revenues and income are rising, whereas IAG is managing prices with better self-discipline, helped by leveraging efficiencies throughout its varied manufacturers, which embrace Iberia, Aer Lingus and Vuelo, in addition to BA. And it’s been given an additional enhance by the falling oil price.

However has it flown too far too quick?

First-half revenue earlier than tax, revealed on 2 August, smashed forecasts touchdown at €909m. With free money circulate hitting €3.2bn, Gallego introduced he was restarting dividends. IAG’s forecast yield is 2.99% in 2025. Not dangerous for starters.

IAG shares nonetheless look good worth to me, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.74. That’s lower than half the FTSE 100 common of 15.1 occasions.

There are nonetheless dangers. Whereas the US economic system seems wholesome, Europe’s doesn’t. And airways will ceaselessly be susceptible to geopolitical threats, pure disasters, and financial downturns.

IAG nonetheless owes a hefty €7.77bn. That’s forecast to fall to €6.97bn in 2025. It’s being paid off quicker than predicted. However my largest concern is that I’m coming to the celebration too late. The restoration is priced in.

Twenty-five analysts have set one-year share price targets for IAG, and the median determine is 295.3p. That’s up simply 3% from at present.

It’s dangerous sufficient that I failed to purchase the shares a 12 months in the past. I’d really feel a good greater chump if I belatedly dived in simply as they reversed. Fortunately, I can see loads of different FTSE 100 shares I’d like to purchase proper now. Perhaps this time I’ll really purchase them.