The BP (LSE: BP) share price has had a tough time these days. In truth, it’s been struggling ever because the flip of the millennium. As soon as seen as a go-to blue-chip FTSE 100 inventory, at this time it comes with an terrible lot of bags.

It took years for the oil large to recuperate from the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe in 2010. When the 2022 oil shock despatched the shares surging, there was a quick sense that the worst may be behind it. That rally has lengthy since light. With oil now hovering round $65 a barrel, BP continues to be turning a revenue, however indicators of pressure are clear.

If President Trump’s renewed commerce tariff threats drag the worldwide financial system into recession, oil costs may slide even additional. Any progress on a nuclear take care of Iran may have the identical impact, as sanctions carry and extra oil hits the market.

Can it battle again?

On the similar time, BP is battling uncertainty over technique. Newish CEO Murray Auchincloss has reaffirmed a shift again in the direction of fossil fuels, in a tough reverse from its renewables drive. It’s a daring name, however leaves BP uncovered if international vitality insurance policies proceed to maneuver in the direction of greener alternate options.

The numbers inform the story. The BP share price has fallen 17% over the previous month alone, and it’s down virtually 30% in a 12 months.

That will tempt some contrarian buyers who imagine the sell-off has gone too far. BP additionally has hedge fund Elliott Administration on its case, pushing for adjustments to spice up worth. A shake-up might be coming, though whether or not it might work is anybody’s guess.

Shopping for at a time like this carries actual danger, but it surely’s usually darkest earlier than the daybreak. BP’s trailing yield of 6.55% provides some consolation whereas ready to see if a restoration takes form.

The excessive dividend yield is tempting

Metropolis brokers nonetheless appear hopeful. The 13 analysts providing one-year share price targets have produced a median forecast just below 455p. That might mark a acquire of virtually 25% from at this time’s 365p. Which is a fairly scorching forecast. Add within the dividend yield, and the potential whole return climbs above 30%.

Forecasts are by no means gospel, particularly in at this time’s fast-changing markets. It’s additionally value noting that many analyst predictions had been made earlier than BP’s latest sharp decline, so views might nicely have shifted.

Among the many 29 analysts who’ve issued a score up to now three months, 18 have sat firmly on the fence with a Maintain. Nonetheless, 10 say Purchase, and of these, seven price BP a Sturdy Purchase. Just one recommends promoting. General, it’s a cautiously optimistic outlook, however no one is pretending the street forward will probably be easy.

I maintain BP shares myself, having purchased in just a few months in the past. It’s not a holding I really feel significantly assured about, but it surely was too tempting to go up on the time.

I’ll be blissful if the dividend retains flowing and the shares stabilise. As for a 25% rise over the following 12 months, that may be a nice shock, however I’m not relying on it. I definitely gained’t be including to my stake at this time.