I’ve not too long ago been trying to find a turnaround inventory for my ISA portfolio. And NIO (NYSE: NIO) has caught my eye, on condition that the inventory is down nearly 20% for the yr.

Over 4 years, it’s crashed 92% and now trades for simply $3.50!

NIO has a perennial downside

Based in 2014, NIO is a Chinese language electrical automobile (EV) producer that focuses on the premium section, notably SUVs and sedans.

Nonetheless, what units it aside are its battery-swap stations, the place drivers can trade a battery in a couple of minutes fairly than charging it. NIO operates roughly 3,354 of those stations, with the overwhelming majority in China.

The corporate was once dubbed the ‘Tesla of China’. However that moniker isn’t used anymore, because it has by no means turned a revenue and its $7.3bn market cap is a fraction of Tesla’s.

NIO’s constant losses have at all times put me off investing. In 2024, the agency delivered 221,970 automobiles, up 38.7% yr on yr, producing income of $9bn (up 18%). But it nonetheless misplaced $3bn, nearly the identical quantity because the yr earlier than.

In Q1, the agency misplaced one other $930m, which was 30% greater than the yr earlier than. Nonetheless, CFO Stanley Yu Qu tried to reassure traders: “Since the first quarter, we have implemented a range of cost control measures, including organisational restructuring, cross-brand integration, and efficiency improvements…Starting from the second quarter, the company aims to achieve structural improvements in overall cost efficiency.”

I bought déjà vu studying that, as a result of NIO has been saying such issues for all of the years I’ve been following it. But the losses hold coming, and the share price retains falling ever decrease.

A bruising price conflict

One other factor that places me off is the brutal EV price conflict in China, NIO’s dwelling market. That is displaying no indicators of abating, and EV large BYD not too long ago lowered costs much more on some fashions. Apparently the Chinese language authorities is rising very involved concerning the trade.

The price conflict is like an anaconda, constricting revenue margins. In such an setting, I doubt that NIO has any actual pricing energy.

That mentioned, it has launched a few cheaper sub-brands to attraction to totally different clients. ONVO is a family-oriented one, and Firefly is a smaller high-end EV. Maybe these can stand out in an more and more crowded Chinese language EV market.

My transfer

Analysts at the moment forecast a 35% enhance in income this yr. Whereas that’s spectacular at first look, the losses are going to proceed for years to return, in response to the identical forecasts.

Clearly, we are able to’t assign NIO inventory a P/E ratio as there aren’t any earnings. On a price-to-sales foundation, the a number of is simply 0.75 occasions.

That would show to be a generational discount if there’s a ceasefire in China’s EV conflict, NIO’s new manufacturers promote like hotcakes, and it lastly turns a revenue.

Nonetheless, there are too many ifs there for me. And with simply $3.6bn in money and equivalents on the finish of Q1, I worry the corporate will quickly want yet one more injection of capital to maintain the manufacturing facility lights on.

Weighing issues up, I’m no extra bullish on NIO at $3.50 than I used to be at $10. So I’ll hold searching for that potential turnaround inventory elsewhere.