Market Outlook #262 (third April 2024)
Good day and welcome to the 262nd instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s submit, I will probably be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Polygon, Optimism, Casper and Realio.
As ever, if in case you have any requests for subsequent week, please do let me know through e mail or within the feedback.
Bitcoin:
Month-to-month:
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth:
Market Cap:
Ideas: If we start by wanting on the month-to-month chart for BTC/USD, we are able to see that final month was the very best ever shut for Bitcoin on probably the most quantity in over a yr, closing firmly via $69k into $71.3k. That is – as I’m positive you might be conscious – not bearish. this timeframe, so long as we maintain above $58kish in April, this nonetheless seems tremendous bullish for the approaching quarter. If April closes beneath $58k, we have now a bit extra of a difficulty, because it seems extra like a false breakout than an actual one, however with this quantity profile and construction I’m leaning closely in the direction of the notion that every one April dips are for purchasing. Trying forward, so long as we do maintain above $58k, I feel we see $100k traded by Q3, and we are able to see why within the weekly chart…
Trying on the weekly, the very first thing to level out is that regardless of 4 weeks of consolidation round these all-time highs the parabolic advance stays intact, and we might proceed to consolidate for a few weeks but with out breaking it. Weekly momentum indicators proceed to level to increased costs with no exhaustion seen but, and on the worst – so long as the parabola holds – I feel we see a pointy wick beneath $61k into $59k after which bounce increased quickly from there. The extra bullish situation right here is the formation of a higher-low this week above $61k that results in one other stab at all-time highs subsequent week, resulting in an eventual breakout earlier than Could and subsequent price discovery, with the rallies getting sharper from there in the direction of $100k by July.
Sooner or later that parabola will break: it’ll both be quickly, and we are going to see an extended consolidation via summer time earlier than reversal seemingly late in Q3 going into the election cycle; or in a number of months time, after which I don’t understand how the cycle would play out from a parabolic break of say $140k. If we have a look at the each day, we are able to see that some kind of ascending triangle is presently forming into these all-time highs and above the curve of the parabola. If we shut the each day beneath that, that could be an early indicator of misplaced momentum and due to this fact the start of a bigger transfer down, seemingly in the direction of that $49-53k vary in a number of weeks time. If, nevertheless, we proceed to type higher-lows right here into mid-April I feel we push via $74k and start the following leg. The liquidation cascade situation can be a pointy wick via $61k that results in a push into $59k – seemingly within the subsequent week or so – earlier than a tough v-reversal leaving late shorts trapped and liquidated longs chasing price increased. Let’s see how this week closes out…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth:
Market Cap:
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we are able to see that the pair is consolidating beneath $3580 resistance, closing marginally above it final week however on low quantity in a decent vary – and early this week promoting off from that open again in the direction of the prior low at $3057. For now, the pair is holding above that low, however I feel its trajectory depends upon BTC/USD over the following week or two. If we drop into the each day for readability, we are able to see how a lower-high has shaped beneath $3726, however price is presently discovering help and $3222 – the early March low. If this help holds for the remainder of the week, I can see continuation increased via $3726 to invalidate the decrease excessive subsequent week. Now, if we shut beneath $3222, I’d count on $3057 to be taken out. What occurs afterwards is reaction-dependent: if we sweep $3057 and shut again above it, then pushing sharply again above $3222, I feel we mark a backside and proceed increased from there; if as an alternative we shut beneath $3057 and that stage acts as resistance, the pair is more likely to return to $2735 earlier than a backside is discovered. I’m presently leaning in the direction of one of many first two eventualities, as until $59k falls for BTC/USD, I can’t see us getting $2735 for ETH.
Turning to ETH/BTC, this pair seems notably woeful and anaemic after the previous week or two of grinding decrease, and we at the moment are pushing beneath the final line of defence at 0.051. If we shut beneath this stage, I feel it’s seemingly we take out the yearly low at 0.0478 into 0.0461. If we shut the week above 0.051 like we have now the final couple of weeks, that may present some power from bulls and we may be marking out a really uneven native backside. It’s exhausting to get enthusiastic about ETH when the BTC pair is wanting like this, however I’m positive we’ll get some sense of course within the subsequent couple of weeks…
Cardano:
ADA/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ADA/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth:
Market Cap:
Ideas: Starting with ADA/USD, on the weekly we are able to see that price has rallied again to the 200wMA, discovering resistance at $0.75 for 3 weeks earlier than rejecting and transferring decrease, now at marginally again beneath resistance at $0.60, which was appearing as help. We’ve got momentum exhaustion right here as properly, supporting the concept that Cardano is an underperformer right here, and I’d count on price to drift again in the direction of $0.47 if we shut beneath $0.60 this week. Dropping into the each day, we are able to see how $0.68 acted as reclaimed resistance after breaking again beneath it, and now construction is firmly bearish, with no signal of exhaustion simply but. If reject off of $0.60 as reclaimed resistance this week, I’m taking a look at a return to that 200dMA and prior resistance turned help at $0.47-0.49. If bulls by some means flip up right here, I feel that is solely a protracted again above $0.68, trying to purchase that as resistance turned help and commerce it increased into $0.90.
Turning to ADA/BTC, we are able to see that price rejected at 1588 satoshis and has been trending decrease all yr, retracing your complete rally from the October 2023 backside again into help right here at 858,. Now that is far more supportive for some reduction for Cardano, given the response off this stage late final yr, but when we shut the weekly beneath 858 that may be disastrous, with one other 20% drop into the following help at 700 satoshis. If we do discover help right here once more, which will present confluence if the Greenback pair can get again above that $0.68 stage for continuation increased.
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
MATIC/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth:
Market Cap:
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at MATIC/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that price is sat on trendline help from the October 2023 backside and hovering above the 200wMA, having pushed beneath reclaimed help at $0.92 this week. MATIC bulls wish to see this space maintain agency and price to push again above $0.92 for the weekly shut, which is able to then look extra like a sweep of native lows into main help and sure a higher-low type continuation in the direction of $1.31 and past. If, nevertheless, $0.92 begins to behave as resistance subsequent week, and we break beneath that trendline, I’d count on to see one other close to 20% of draw back in the direction of $0.74 as the following main help. If we drop into the each day, we see comparable construction to ADA/USD with no indicators of pattern exhaustion simply but, opening up the probability of that bigger transfer decrease into $0.74, with the 200dMA and 360dMA hovering above that. If we are able to catch a bid right here and push again above $1, that’s a pleasant lengthy for the $1.31 retest, with a view to hedge there and reopen on acceptance above that stage.
Turning to MATIC/BTC, we are able to see simply how poorly this has carried out, breaking beneath multi-year help and turning it into resistance, then grinding decrease for weeks, now sat in no man’s land at 1350 satoshis. There isn’t any main help beneath this all the way in which into 948. There are additionally no indicators but of pattern exhaustion right here. If something, you seemingly wish to maintain off any spot purchases till 1720 satoshis is reclaimed as help or price trades into that 948 stage. Not engaging in any respect right here.
Optimism:
OP/USD
Day by day:
OP/BTC
Day by day:
Worth:
Market Cap:
Ideas: Focusing right here on OP/USD, given the comparatively quick price-history of Optimism, we are able to see that price shaped an all-time excessive in March round $4.92, from which level it has retraced, breaking again beneath prior highs turned resistance at $4.24 after which pushing into help at $3, above which it presently sits. Construction is bearish right here, as is momentum, however we have now the beginnings of some exhaustion on the Superior Oscillator. Nonetheless, I do assume this continues to puke in the direction of the 200dMA, seemingly sweeping the swing-low into $2.56 earlier than marking out a backside. So long as we don’t shut beneath $2.33, I feel this nonetheless simply seems like a broad vary above historic resistance turned help; shut beneath that and this seems far more bearish. If we are able to mark out a backside above $2.56, I’m searching for $5.80 as the following goal for my spot holdings.
Casper:
CSPR/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
CSPR/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth:
Market Cap:
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at CSPR/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair has been in a broad vary for nearly two years now, with newer price motion confined between help at $0.031 and help turned resistance at $0.055. We’re again on the backside of that shallower vary throughout the broader vary and that is largely simply chop at current. Casper was born within the bear market and has solely identified a downtrend and a protracted flat consolidation, so it’s in all probability price shopping for partials near vary help and including to your place on a clear weekly shut via $0.054, if in case you have basic conviction on this venture. Above $0.054, I feel the primary bull cycle is more likely to start, and I wouldn’t expect something lower than $0.226 as a primary goal, however seemingly costs past $0.36 given it has by no means skilled a bull cycle.
Turning to CSPR/BTC, in contrast to the Greenback pair that is nonetheless in its long-term downtrend since inception, with latest price motion breaking beneath prior all-time lows at 83 satoshis and pushing into 63, earlier than turning that into resistance and now sitting at 52 satoshis. We’ve got the makings of minor pattern exhaustion right here however we’re very a lot in bearish price discovery. I’d be searching for construction and momentum to point out us clear indicators of bullishness earlier than stepping in to be sincere. If we drop into the each day, this might take the type of a trendline breakout adopted by a reclaim of 63 satoshis as help, which might make for a pleasant entry. If we break beneath 52, there isn’t a realizing the place this stops.
Realio:
RIO/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
RIO/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth:
Market Cap:
Ideas: Starting with RIO/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair has been in a robust uptrend since November 2022, persevering with to carry to a parabolic advance, with final week seeing the pair push via the ultimate resistance stage at $2.74 on big quantity into $5.61, however finally reject and shut again inside $2.73. Momentum indicators don’t present indicators on exhaustion right here and slightly I count on we see a few weeks of consolidation right here earlier than the breakout is validated and price continues to run increased in the direction of the all-time highs at $10.72 within the subsequent couple of months. So long as the parabola holds, there isn’t a must count on something apart from what we have now already been seeing. If we break the parabola, it’s seemingly we get a deeper correction in the direction of $0.99 earlier than any continuation.
Turning to RIO/BTC, we are able to see that weekly construction is firmly bullish and final week noticed price shut via a cluster of resistance on nice quantity and with new highs on momentum indicators, discovering resistance round 5772 satoshis and now consolidating between there and reclaimed help at 1836. As talked about above, I’d count on continued consolidation right here earlier than a weekly shut via 5772, which would be the catalyst for the steepest a part of the parabola, with no resistance between there and all-time highs. On this chart, that’s marked out as 96k satoshis, however I feel it is a misprint – both approach, above 6k satoshis, I feel you’re successfully in price discovery mode for the BTC pair. So long as this holds above 1155 construction can also be nonetheless bullish, so there may be lots of draw back we might see earlier than any break in construction.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions beneath, or e mail me immediately at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.