I’ve had a prime UK progress inventory on my ‘buy’ checklist for years. The primary time I wrote about it, yonks in the past, I referred to as it the final word FTSE 100 darkish horse. Why? As a result of it’s the form of firm that doesn’t make headlines however retains delivering. Quietly lifting income, increasing the enterprise and lifting dividends yr after yr.

The inventory in query is Bunzl (LSE: BNZL). I’ve admired it for ages however by no means fairly discovered the appropriate time to pounce. Which may lastly be altering.

Bunzl shares wobble

Bunzl supplies the unglamorous however important gadgets that maintain hospitals, outlets and factories ticking over: gloves, packaging, paper towels, cleansing equipment and the like.

It’s constructed a powerful enterprise by snapping up smaller rivals across the globe. Final yr, it sealed 13 offers price £883m, and it hasn’t let up in 2025 both, buying Solupack in Brazil simply final month.

In April, its ahead march hit a bump within the street, when the board issued a revenue warning after a rocky begin to the yr. North America, its greatest market, struggled with comfortable demand and rising prices, whereas Europe and the UK got here beneath stress too. The shares crashed 23% in a day.

That was a shock for long-time followers like me. Over 12 months, the share price is now down virtually 25%. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has dropped to 11.98 instances, simply the most cost effective I can recall. The dividend yield is nudging 3.2%, the best I can bear in mind.

Again on monitor?

Yesterday’s half-year replace (24 June) introduced some reassurance. Bunzl mentioned buying and selling had met expectations, regardless of the murky world financial outlook. The corporate expects the second half to be stronger, helped by administration efforts to spice up efficiency, particularly in North America and continental Europe.

First-half income is on monitor to rise 4% at fixed alternate charges, with acquisitions doing a lot of the lifting. Working margins are forecast to take a seat round 7%, down somewhat on latest years, however with room to enhance later within the yr. Traders could have priced that enchancment in by now, after all. Bunzl should beat it, to elevate the shares.

The long-term report nonetheless stands out. It has now grown its dividend yearly for 32 years. Over the previous 15, payouts have risen by a median of 8.56% a yr. That’s consistency.

Nonetheless watching

Even so, I’m treading rigorously. I’ve been burned earlier than by leaping too rapidly into falling shares. My greatest portfolio regrets – Diageo, Glencore, JD Sports activities Style and Ocado Group – comply with that precise sample. A single revenue warning usually results in one other, and the losses can spiral. So I’m not diving in simply but.

Analysts are cut up. Of the 18 overlaying Bunzl, three price it a Sturdy Promote and one other says Promote. The bulk nonetheless lean in direction of Purchase, however solely simply. They’re pencilling in a 12-month goal of two,700p, which might imply a 15% acquire from at present’s 2,354p.

I’d prefer to consider they’re proper. That P/E now appears tempting, and if sentiment turns, restoration shares can climb sharply. Usually when traders least anticipate it.

The worldwide outlook stays bumpy although. With tariffs, life’s harder for worldwide corporations like this one. Bunzl’s nonetheless prime of my wishlist. However I’m holding hearth for now.