FTSE 100 cloud-based monetary instruments supplier Sage Group (LSE: SGE) posted one other set of broadly sturdy outcomes on 15 Might.

Its H1 2025 figures confirmed whole income improve 9% 12 months on 12 months to £1.242m. Working revenue rose 10% to £1.203bn, with revenue after tax rising 15% to £206m.

Earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation jumped 14% to £334m, whereas primary earnings per share elevated 15% to twenty.8p.

In consequence, the agency boosted its dividend by 7% to 7.45p a share. It additionally prolonged its ongoing share buyback programme by up to £200m – these are typically supportive of share price good points.

It forecasts whole income progress for this 12 months to be 9% or above.

The one actual adverse component within the numbers was an undershooting of analysts’ forecasts for North American progress. These had been for 13%, whereas the accounting, HR and payroll options supplier achieved 11%.

That stated, consensus analysts’ projections are that its earnings will improve by 12.8% a 12 months to the top of 2027. Development on this space ought to lead finally result in a rising share price and dividends.

So what am I ready for?

Simply because I feel a agency seems to be good doesn’t imply I’m keen to purchase it at any price. That is the issue I’ve with Sage.

I lived via the now largely forgotten (however not by me) dotcom bubble of the late Nineties. Again then, many firms within the then-much-hyped rising web house noticed their share costs pushed up by the upper valuations of the sector’s leaders.  

I feel the identical might apply to the costs of some firms within the now-much-hyped tech and synthetic intelligence sector.

Extra particularly, Sage’s 34.5 price-to-earnings ratio is backside of its worldwide peer group, which averages 48.7. These companies are Oracle at 36.2, Salesforce at 43.7, SAP at 54.1, and Intuit at 60.8.

So, Sage seems to be undervalued in comparison with them on this measure.

The identical is true of its 4.9 price-to-sales ratio – additionally backside of the group – in opposition to its friends’ common of 8.7.

Crucially although, a reduced money movement (DCF) analysis – utterly impartial of different companies’ valuations – paints a unique image. This pinpoints the place any agency’s share price must be, based mostly on future money movement forecasts for the underlying enterprise.

In Sage’s case, the DCF reveals its shares are 38% overvalued at their present price of £12.52.

Subsequently, their honest worth must be £9.07.

My verdict

I don’t doubt that Sage is an effective agency and that it’s going to continue to grow. It might simply be that its present share price displays progress that has not occurred but. And the danger right here is that this may occasionally undershoot these expectations, given the extraordinary competitors within the sector.

It might additionally happen from a continuation within the extra risky and unsure macroeconomic surroundings highlighted by Sage in its H1 outcomes. Its lower-than-expected progress in North America in H1 could also be an indication of issues to return in that regard.

In essence, given its substantial overvaluation for my part, I cannot purchase the inventory.