The Aston Martin (LSE: AML) share price is racing forward at this time, up nearly 15% this morning.

That’s excellent news for me, as I used to be daft sufficient to purchase the James Bond automotive maker final yr. I purchased it to reap the benefits of a 90%+ drop within the worth of its shares. Absolutely they couldn’t drop any additional, might they? I ought to have identified higher.

Regardless of at this time’s spectacular rebound, Aston Martin shares are nonetheless down 54% over one yr and 97% over 5.

So is at this time’s rebound the beginning of a superb return to type? I’m not satisfied. To me, it seems like Aston Martin shares have simply been swept up in present inventory market volatility. They fell 9% yesterday. They have an inclination to plunge quicker than the market when traders are feeling nervous, and soar quicker after they’re feeling bullish.

How dangerous is that this FTSE 250 inventory?

When the corporate publishes outcomes, the end result is simpler to foretell. Extra ache for folks like me. The FTSE 250 group’s newest market replace was launched on 26 February, and it wasn’t good.

Aston Martin reported a widening of pre-tax losses to £289.1m, up from £239.8m the yr earlier than. Income dipped 3% to £1.58bn, whereas wholesale volumes fell 9% to six,030. These don’t point out restoration mode to me.

Administration is chopping round 5% of its international workforce, shedding 170 jobs. This could save round £25m however cost-cutting can solely go thus far. Aston Martin nonetheless must drive revenues, and that continues to be a problem.

As soon as once more, it’s delayed the launch of its first electrical automobile — that luxurious automotive clients in all probability don’t need anyway. It’s now scheduled for “the latter a part of the last decade“. By no means say by no means. I think that is the board’s favoured timescale.

New-ish CEO Adrian Hallmark stays upbeat as he shifts the group’s focus to “operational execution and delivering financial sustainability”. The corporate is pinning hopes on its upcoming Valhalla hybrid supercar, anticipated within the second half of 2025. We’ll see.

In the meantime, exterior dangers loom. The second Trump presidency might probably see the US slap 25% tariffs on UK-made autos. That will hit Aston Martin arduous. Struggles in China, one other key market, aren’t serving to.

It’s a massively risky restoration play

The ten analysts providing one-year share price forecasts have produced a median goal of 135p. If right, that’s a staggering enhance of greater than 60% from at this time’s 84p.

These forecasts had been produced earlier than the newest droop. They received’t replicate final month’s outcomes or the previous few turbulent days.

I wouldn’t counsel any signal investor considers shopping for Aston Martin shares. I’m solely holding on as a result of promoting my tremendously lowered stake would barely cowl the buying and selling prices. I jest, however solely simply.

And who is aware of? Possibly, simply possibly, this might be the beginning of one thing. Maybe Amazon’s Jeff Bezos will purchase Aston Martin to match his buy of the James Bond franchise.

He might actually afford it. The group’s market cap of simply £782m could be small change to him. For the file, no person has urged Amazon will purchase Aston Martin however hope springs everlasting!

Hope will also be costly, particularly the blind kind. Blind hope is presumably the one purpose to purchase Aston Martin shares at this time. It didn’t work out for me.