Timing a turnaround funding’s tough. The ITV (LSE: ITV) share price is an efficient instance. The tv group is making good progress with its plan to turn out to be a worldwide content material producer and the UK’s main streaming service.

However ITV shares are nonetheless round 30% decrease than they have been firstly of 2022, simply earlier than CEO Carolyn McCall laid out her plans.

Why aren’t traders tuning into ITV?

ITV actually is making progress. Income from its ITV Studios content material enterprise – which sells programmes to streamers and different broadcasters – has risen from £1,760m in 2021 to £2,170m in 2023.

The corporate’s digital streaming service, ITVX, can be rising. Digital promoting income has risen from £293m in 2021 to £415m final yr.

The one downside is that the standard tv promoting enterprise isn’t doing so effectively. Promoting gross sales on common broadcast tv have fallen from £1,664m in 2021 to £1,363m in 2023. Admittedly, final yr noticed a nasty promoting downturn. McCall mentioned it was the worst slowdown since 2009.

She’s assured issues will enhance, however the wider market isn’t but satisfied. Many traders consider ITV’s nonetheless too depending on so-called linear tv.

I feel they’re mistaken

ITV’s technique appears to be like wise to me. And I’m significantly excited by the group’s rising footprint within the US content material market. To me, that appears like an enormous long-term progress alternative.

Again at residence, ITV’s persevering with to broaden its streaming companies, catching customers who don’t wish to watch conventional linear TV.  The corporate says it’s on plan for digital income to achieve £750m by 2026. I don’t see any purpose to doubt this.

The enterprise stays fairly worthwhile too. ITV’s working margin’s about 14%. Adjusted earnings are anticipated to rise by round 18% to 9.2p in 2024.

The share price is hovering round 78p, as I write. These forecasts price ITV shares on eight occasions forecast earnings, with a well-supported 6% dividend yield.

I feel that’s too low-cost for this enterprise. Metropolis analysts have a median price goal of round 95p for ITV. My sums recommend a good worth someplace between 90p and 120p.

As a shareholder, I’m hopeful that if ITV continues to ship on its plans over the rest of this yr, the shares might reward my endurance.

Will 2024 be a turning level?

Markets hate uncertainty. Institutional traders might be cautious about firms that going by means of adjustments.

However in my expertise, success is normally rewarded ultimately. If ITV can stabilise its promoting income this yr and ship a assured outlook for 2025, then I feel a budget valuation on provide right here might turn out to be irresistible to traders.

Clearly, I do not know what ITV’s share price might be on the finish of this yr. No-one can predict short-term share price actions. Nevertheless, I feel there are some good causes to be assured concerning the outlook for ITV shares for the remainder of this yr.