The worth of Greggs (LSE:GRG) shares fell sharply yesterday (9 January) after the group launched a buying and selling replace for the final quarter of 2024. The headline determine was spectacular. Complete gross sales elevated 7.7%, in comparison with the identical interval in 2023. However for these outlets managed instantly by the corporate, on a like-for-like foundation, the rise was a extra modest 2.5%.

The excellence between franchised shops — which account for round 20% of the group’s footprint — and different premises is a crucial one. That’s as a result of — maybe surprisingly — the baker earns a decrease margin from the outlets that it manages itself.

In 2023, Greggs reported a buying and selling revenue margin of 20.7% on franchised outlets (together with different wholesale actions). Its personal outlets – which contributed 89% of income that 12 months — recorded a margin of 15.5%.

I believe this was the principal purpose why the baker’s shares carried out so poorly. The corporate noticed “subdued High Street footfall” throughout the quarter, which impacts its personal shops probably the most.

One individual’s trash might be one other’s treasure

It’s been a depressing week for shareholders. In the course of the 5 buying and selling days ended 10 January, the shares fell 23%.

However this might be an excellent alternative for me. As Warren Buffett advises: “Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”

Certainly, this echoes the recommendation given by RBC Capital, in December. The funding financial institution was telling its shoppers to “buy the dip”. On the time, the shares have been altering fingers for £28.34p. At this time, they’re 24% decrease. And it set a price goal of £32.40 — a 50% enchancment on as we speak’s worth.

This optimism is predicated on a perception that the group is properly positioned to deal with the post-Price range greater labour prices that the corporate faces.

Earnings prospects

One constructive from the latest fall in its share price is that the inventory’s yield has been pushed greater.

Having mentioned that, it’s troublesome to exactly calculate the present yield. Over the previous 5 years, the corporate’s paid three particular dividends. Based mostly on the quantities paid in 2024 (105p), the yield is 4.9%. Nevertheless, utilizing payouts made in 2023 (60p), it’s 2.8%.

Keep in mind, although, that dividends are by no means assured.

Not so quick

Though Greggs continues to develop, the tempo is slowing.

It’s true that income has elevated quickly because the pandemic — the common annual improve, from 2021 to 2024, was 26%. But it surely slowed to 11.3%, in 2024.

I feel that is inevitable provided that the corporate doesn’t have any abroad shops. There’s a restrict to the variety of pies and sausage rolls that UK customers can eat.

But it surely means the group’s weak to a slowdown within the home economic system. With its popularity for low costs, Greggs is ideally positioned to take benefit when incomes are squeezed. Customers usually tend to ‘trade down’ when money is tight.

Nevertheless, it’s not immune from a wider financial slowdown. Though the UK economic system is anticipated to develop in 2025, latest knowledge has forged some doubt on the accuracy of probably the most optimistic of forecasts.

Subsequently, after reviewing the funding case, I don’t need to put money into Greggs. Its income and earnings development are slowing. And it’s over-reliant on the UK economic system. Personally, I imagine this week’s dramatic pullback within the share price is a sign that different traders share my issues.