By Orhan Qereman, Tom Perry and Tuvan Gumrukcu
QAMISHLI, Syria/BEIRUT/ANKARA (Reuters) -With hostile Turkish-backed teams mobilising towards them in Syria’s north, and Damascus dominated by a bunch pleasant to Ankara, Syria’s important Kurdish factions are on the again foot as they search to protect political positive aspects carved out throughout 13 years of warfare.
A part of a stateless ethnic group straddling Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Armenia and Syria, Kurds have thus far been among the many few winners of the Syrian battle, controlling almost 1 / 4 of the nation and main a strong armed group that may be a key U.S. ally in countering Islamic State.
However the energy stability has tilted towards them because the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) swept into Damascus this month, toppling President Bashar al-Assad, two analysts and a senior Western diplomat instructed Reuters.
The seismic change in Syria is anticipated to yield deeper Turkish sway simply as a change of U.S. administration is elevating questions over how lengthy Washington will hold backing the nation’s Kurdish-led forces.
For Turkey, the Kurdish factions characterize a nationwide safety risk. Ankara views them as an extension of the Kurdistan Employees Get together (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency towards the Turkish state since 1984 and is deemed a terrorist group by Turkey, the US and different powers.
The Syrian Kurdish teams “are in deep, deep trouble”, stated Aron Lund, a fellow at Century Worldwide, a U.S.-based assume tank.
“The balance has shifted fundamentally in Syria to the advantage of Turkey-backed or Turkey-aligned factions, and Turkey seems determined to exploit this to the fullest.”
The shift has been mirrored in renewed preventing for management of the north, the place Turkey-backed armed teams generally known as the Syrian Nationwide Military (SNA) have made navy advances towards the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Fanar al-Kait, a senior official within the Kurdish-led regional administration, instructed Reuters that the ouster of Assad, whose Arab nationalist Baath Get together oppressed Kurds for many years, introduced an opportunity to sew the fragmented nation again collectively.
He stated the administration is prepared for dialogue with Turkey, however the battle within the north confirmed Ankara had “very bad intentions”.
“This will certainly push the region towards … a new conflict,” he added.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated on Friday he anticipated overseas states would withdraw assist for Kurdish fighters following Assad’s toppling, as Ankara seeks to isolate the Individuals’s Safety Items (YPG), the Kurdish militia that spearheaded the SDF alliance.
Responding to questions from Reuters, a Turkish official stated the basis reason for the battle is “not Turkey’s view towards the region; it is that the PKK/YPG is a terrorist organisation”.
“The PKK/YPG elements must lay down their arms and leave Syria,” the official stated.
SDF commander Mazloum Abdi, in a Reuters interview on Thursday, acknowledged the presence of PKK fighters in Syria for the primary time, saying that they had helped battle Islamic State and would return house within the occasion a complete ceasefire was agreed with Turkey. He denied any organisational ties with the PKK.
FEMINISM AND ISLAMISM
In the meantime, in Damascus, the brand new management is displaying heat in direction of Ankara and indicating it needs to convey all Syria again below central authority – a possible problem to the decentralisation Kurds favour.
Whereas Turkey supplies direct backing to the SNA, it together with different states deems HTS a terrorist group due to its al Qaeda previous.
Regardless of this, Ankara is believed to have important sway over the group. A senior Western diplomat stated: “The Turks can clearly influence them more than anyone else”.
HTS chief Ahmed al-Sharaa instructed a Turkish newspaper that Assad’s ouster was “not only the victory of the Syrian people, but also the Turkish people”.
The Turkish official stated HTS was not and by no means had been below Ankara’s management, calling it a construction “we were communicating with due to circumstances” and including many Western states had been additionally doing so.
Syrian Kurdish teams led by the Democratic Union Get together (PYD) and the affiliated YPG militia took management of a lot of the north after the rebellion towards Assad started in 2011. They established their very own administration, whereas insisting their goal was autonomy, not independence.
Their politics, emphasising socialism and feminism, differ starkly from HTS’ Islamism.
Their space grew as U.S.-led forces partnered with the SDF within the marketing campaign towards Islamic State, capturing Arab-majority areas.
The Turkey-backed SNA teams stepped up their marketing campaign towards the SDF as Assad was being toppled, seizing town of Manbij on Dec. 9
Washington brokered a ceasefire, however the SDF has stated Turkey and its allies haven’t abided by it, and a Turkish defence ministry official stated there was no such deal.
U.S. assist for the SDF has been some extent of rigidity with its NATO ally, Turkey. Washington views the SDF as a key accomplice in countering Islamic State, which Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned will attempt to use this era to re-establish capabilities in Syria. The SDF continues to be guarding tens of 1000’s of detainees linked to the militant group.
Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler stated final weekend that Turkey noticed no signal of an Islamic State resurgence in Syria. On Friday, Turkey’s overseas minister, Hakan Fidan, instructed his German counterpart throughout talks in Ankara that alternate options wanted to be discovered for the administration of camps and prisons the place the detainees are being held.
Individually, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Close to Japanese Affairs Barbara Leaf stated on Friday that Washington was working with Ankara and the SDF to seek out “a managed transition in terms of SDF’s role in that part of the country.”
President Joe Biden’s administration has stated that U.S. troops will keep on in Syria, however President-elect Donald Trump might take away them when he takes workplace on Jan. 20.
LETTER TO TRUMP
Throughout his first administration, Trump tried to tug out of Syria however confronted stress at house and from U.S. allies.
In a Dec. 17 letter to Trump, reviewed by Reuters, prime Syrian Kurdish official Ilham Ahmed stated Turkey was getting ready to invade the northeast earlier than he takes workplace.
Turkey’s plan “threatens to undo years of progress in securing stability and fighting terrorism”, she wrote. “We believe you have the power to prevent this catastrophe.”
Requested for remark, Trump-Vance transition spokesman Brian Hughes stated: “We continue to monitor the situation in Syria. President Trump is committed to diminishing threats to peace and stability in the Middle East and to protecting Americans here at home.”
Trump stated on Dec. 16 that Turkey will “hold the key” to what occurs in Syria however has not introduced his plans for U.S. forces stationed there.
“The Kurds are in an unenviable position,” stated Joshua Landis, a Syria knowledgeable on the College of Oklahoma. “Once Damascus consolidates its power, it will move on the region. The U.S. can’t remain there forever.”
HTS chief Sharaa instructed British broadcaster the BBC that Kurds had been “part of our people” and “there should be no division of Syria”, including arms must be completely within the state’s arms.
Sharaa acknowledged one among Turkey’s important considerations – the presence of non-Syrian Kurdish fighters in Syria – and stated: “We do not accept that Syrian lands threaten and destabilize Turkey or other places.”
He pledged to work via dialogue and negotiations to seek out “a peaceful formula to solve the problem,” saying he believed preliminary contacts had been established “between the Kurds in northeastern Syria or the SDF organisation”.
Kait, the Kurdish official, stated his administration needed “a democratic Syria, a decentralized Syria, a Syria that represents all Syrians of all sects, religions and ethnicities,” describing these as crimson traces. The SDF could be “a nucleus of the coming Syrian army,” he added.
SDF commander Abdi, in his Reuters interview, confirmed that contact had been established with HTS to keep away from clashes between their forces however stated Ankara would attempt to drive a wedge between Damascus and the Kurdish-led administration.
Nonetheless, he stated there was sturdy assist from worldwide events, together with the U.S.-led coalition, for the SDF becoming a member of “the new political phase” in Damascus, calling it “a great opportunity”.
“We are preparing, after a total ceasefire between us and between Turkey and the affiliated factions, to join this phase,” he stated.
(Orhan Qereman reported from Qamishli, Syria, Tom Perry from Beirut and Tuvan Gumrukcu from Ankara; Further reporting by John Irish in Paris, Humeyra Pamuk in Washington and Daren Butler in Istanbul; Writing by Tom Perry; Enhancing by Alexandra Zavis)