• US spot ETH ETFs may hit $15 billion in web flows within the subsequent 18 months 
• Regardless of the excessive possibilities of the ETF launch subsequent week, extra merchants have shorted ETH. 

Regardless of some analysts’ overwhelming low expectations for the US spot Ethereum [ETF], Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan projected that the merchandise will succeed. 

Hougan estimated the merchandise may hit $15 billion in web flows in lower than two years.

“Ethereum ETPs will attract $15 billion in net flows in their first 18 months on the market.”

Ethereum ETF: Why flows may hit $15B in 2025

Hougan’s argument was primarily based on Bitcoin [BTC] vs. ETH market share and ETFs’ AUM (property below administration) throughout Europe and Canada. 

As of press time, Bitcoin’s [BTC] market cap was $1.19 trillion, whereas ETH’s was $405 billion. Nonetheless, per Hogan, on the time of his analysis, BTC had $1,266 billion (74% of the market), whereas ETH had $432 billion (26%). 

Hougan established an identical demand sample throughout ETPs (Change-traded merchandise) throughout Canada and Europe. 

Notably, for Europe’s AUM, Bitcoin ETPs had  €4,601 (78%), whereas Ethereum ETPs had €1,305 (22%). In Canada, Bitcoin ETPs’ AUM stood at  $4,942 CAD (77%), whereas Ethereum ETPs’ had $1,475 CAD (23%). 

As such, Hougan concluded that the above figures captured the ‘normal’ demand for ETPs between BTC and ETH buyers. 

In line with Hougan, if US spot BTC ETFs’ AUM hits $100 billion by the tip of 2025, ETH ETFs may hit $35 billion, primarily based on ETH’s 26% market share.

As of this writing, Soso Worth information revealed that BTC ETFs had amassed $52 billion in AUM. 

Nonetheless, Hougan added, 

“This doesn’t mean $35 billion in flows, of course. Remember: ETHE will convert with $10 billion in assets. Subtract that, and you’re left with $25 billion.”

ETHE is Grayscale’s Ethereum Belief, which some analysts imagine may see outflows much like these of its GBTC upon conversion to an ETF. 

Nonetheless, Huogan famous that when adjusted for the EU’s 22% market share, the $25B decreases to $18B. 

Moreover, factoring doubtless lesser flows from carry commerce seen in BTC ETFs, Hougan famous, 

“The carry trade is not reliably profitable in ETH for non-staked assets, so I do not expect the same carry-trade flow for the new ETH ETFs. Removing carry-trade assets from our model cuts our flow estimate from $18 billion to $15 billion.”

Such a goal would make the ETH ETPs a ‘big success,’ wrote Hougan. 

How are ETH merchants positioned for ETFs?

As of press time, the second-largest digital asset was buying and selling at $3.3k, down 15% from a excessive of $3.9k hit after the partial ETH ETF approvals in late Could. 

Will it reverse the losses, because the market expects the ETF to launch subsequent week? 

Per Polymarket’s prediction market, the percentages of the ETH ETF launch subsequent week jumped to 75% as of press time. 

Nonetheless, regardless of the upcoming ETF, merchants have shorted the asset, with brief positions rising from 49% to 51% up to now three days.