New gamers entered the sector, resulting in the earlier cycle prediction not being appropriate. The market has entered a brand new period of Bitcoin.
Ki Younger Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant and a famend on-chain analyst, mirrored on his earlier prediction that “the Bitcoin bull cycle was over.”
Two months in the past, I mentioned the bull cycle was over, however I used to be flawed. #Bitcoin promoting strain is easing, and large inflows are coming by ETFs.
Previously, the Bitcoin market was fairly easy. The principle gamers had been outdated whales, miners, and new retail buyers, principally… pic.twitter.com/oN4n6vNc0s
— Ki Younger Ju (@ki_young_ju) Could 9, 2025
Ki Younger Ju launched a chart referred to as “Signal 365 MA” and acknowledged his mistake, offering insights into how the market has modified on account of new gamers, together with institutional buyers and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
A market remodeled: New gamers, new guidelines
In his publish, Ki Younger Ju defined why his earlier declare that “the Bitcoin bull cycle was over” was false. The market was dominated by miners, particular person buyers, and outdated whales who performed a sport referred to as “Musical Chairs,” which made Bitcoin cycles predictable prior to now.
Learn extra: “Bitcoin growth cycle has ended” mentioned CryptoQuant CEO
When retail liquidity dried up and whales cashed out, a sequence of sell-offs typically signaled a cycle peak. “It was relatively easy to predict the cycle peak,” he said. However that mannequin is not related.
At present’s Bitcoin market is way extra various. Institutional buyers, MicroStrategy, ETFs, and authorities companies are all coming into the market. The launch of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs has drastically expanded institutional liquidity, with every day ETF volumes now approaching $10 billion.
“New liquidity sources and volume are becoming more uncertain, signaling a transition as the Bitcoin market merges with TradFi,” Ki Younger Ju mentioned, highlighting this alteration.
Since these new members can offset even intense promoting strain, he now thinks the emphasis must be on institutional inflows reasonably than whale sell-offs.
This shift is graphically supported by the “Signal 365 MA” chart, which compares the price of Bitcoin to its 365-day shifting common (MA) from 2013 to 2025.
Supply: CryptoQuant
Previously, the chart has displayed extreme dives beneath the 365 MA throughout bear markets (e.g., 2018, 2022) and robust peaks above it throughout bull runs (e.g., 2017, 2021).
Nevertheless, the price of Bitcoin is nearer to the 365 MA in 2025, and corrections appear to be longer however shallower.
Wanting Forward: A New Period for Bitcoin?
Ki Younger Ju continues to be cautiously hopeful about the way forward for Bitcoin. He mentioned that though the market was “sluggish while absorbing new liquidity,” “recent price action is extremely bullish,” fueled by massive inflows of ETFs and a discount in promoting strain. He did level out, although, that the indicators are nonetheless ambiguous, with no distinct bullish or bearish sign for the profit-taking cycle.
One other stage of complexity is launched by the increasing impression of conventional finance. Though there was a rise within the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, this hyperlink just isn’t all the time steady, and Bitcoin’s volatility continues to be problematic.
Buyers should modify to this altering setting. Navigating the advantages and dangers of 2025 would require a data of the affect of institutional liquidity, because the earlier rules governing Bitcoin cycles might not be relevant. It’s extra essential than ever to maintain knowledgeable, no matter whether or not it is a transitory change or the start of a brand new chapter for Bitcoin.