A excessive threat/reward permutation is just about relevant to each power Different Funding Market (AIM) inventory. Many overpromise solely to fizzle out.

So, to select winners in London’s junior market, I undertake a spot of bottom-up analysis – i.e. place emphasis on the person inventory’s financials whereas lowering give attention to macroeconomic and market cycles to a sure extent.

Among the many many AIM-listed power shares that I’ve checked out on this vein, minnow Afentra (LSE: AET) stands out. Its core providing features a portfolio of non-operated mid-life producing oil and gasoline property in Africa that the power majors have retreated from.

Nearly all of these holdings – each onshore and offshore – are in Angola. They’re viable hydrocarbon performs that presently generate income. On the halfway level of this 12 months, Afentra swung to a $22.2m revenue (versus a H1 2023 lack of $3.1m).

Regardless of a troublesome macroclimate, wider challenges within the power sector and oil price declines, this minnow has held its personal due to an astute hedging technique, i.e. defending the bulk its per barrel takings through monetary devices at a hard and fast secure stage to handle price volatility.

Operationally prudent

As an illustration, in line with the corporate’s newest replace, it offered 1.68m barrels of crude oil at a mean price of $84 per barrel for the primary three quarters of the 12 months. “With the final lifting scheduled for Q4 2024, which is 70% hedged with a floor of $70 per barrel, the company is well positioned to continue its disciplined financial management and operational growth,” it famous additional. 

Afentra additionally boasts of a FTSE 250 calibre administration for an AIM firm. It’s led by former Tullow Oil chief govt and business veteran Paul McDade. Based mostly on my conversations with McDade, Afentra places operational prudency, transparency and sustaining a low debt profile on the coronary heart of its operations, conscious of detrimental perceptions typically related to AIM useful resource shares.

As of 31 October, Afentra has money assets of $37.4m and web debt of $4.6m, “while upcoming crude sales will further bolster liquidity.” Future revenue stability relies on the corporate’s need to double its manufacturing capability to 40,000 barrels per day inside half a decade and add extra barrels by additional acquisitions.

Prospects and caveats

I consider Afentra probably has room for upside from its present vary of 40p to 60p to round 250p to 320p in 5 years. That is primarily based on a calculation of 4 instances its projected present end-year monetary income ($180m) divided by the variety of its issued shares.

The corporate’s efforts to double its manufacturing by 2029 and promoting oil at a mean price of $70 per barrel additionally seems broadly supportive of a 4x income projection as a foundation for the calculation.

In fact, foreign money fluctuations and the power of the greenback could have a say. Have been oil costs to slip progressively additional and quicker to the tip of the present decade, so will Afentra’s earnings. Deliberate manufacturing will increase could not materialise. Such elements will impression the corporate’s future share price.

Nevertheless, for me, potential rewards presently outweigh the dangers of holding Afentra. The corporate seems to have medium to long-term potential and it’s why I’d be pleased so as to add extra of its shares to my portfolio.