Warren Buffett received’t be taking up from Cathie Wooden at ARK Make investments – you heard it right here first. However there are another issues which are unlikely in 2025 that buyers ought to take note of. 

Whereas threat is inevitable, understanding how to minimise it’s key. And that includes understanding the place it will take one thing massive for issues to go fallacious.

“Diageo cuts dividend”

Diageo (LSE:DGE) is going through a twin menace of US tariffs and anti-obesity medicine. However I don’t see both of those inflicting the enterprise to decrease its dividend in 2025. 

With the tariff subject, I believe it’s value noting {that a} respectable a part of the corporate’s portfolio – together with Bulleit, Crown Royal, and Smirnoff is produced within the US. These can be unaffected by taxes on imports. 

As regards to anti-obesity medicine, nearly all of customers are individuals who already are inclined to devour much less alcohol anyway. So I’m sceptical of the concept that is prone to have a big affect on demand. 

The dangers can’t be ignored solely, however the discounted share price means I’m trying to purchase the inventory in 2025. And I believe the possibilities of the dividend doing any factor however go up in 2025 are extraordinarily distant.

“Rightmove accepts takeover bid”

Earlier this yr, REA group made a bid to amass Rightmove (LSE:RMV). The supply was rejected and I don’t suppose anybody goes to succeed with the same proposal in 2025. 

There are two causes for this. The primary is the corporate is doing nicely by itself – it’s rising strongly and it has a powerful stability sheet, that means there’s practically no stress to promote.

The second is the inventory isn’t precisely low cost, at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27. I’m not shopping for it at as we speak’s ranges and I can’t see anybody paying considerably over this to amass the agency outright.

The subsequent yr shall be an fascinating one for Rightmove, with the potential for elevated competitors from OnTheMarket a possible menace. However so far as the possibility of a takeover goes, I don’t suppose so.

“Interest rates return to Covid-19 levels”

Rates of interest going again to 0.1% would virtually definitely trigger an enormous rally in inventory costs. However until there’s one other emergency on the size of the Covid-19 pandemic, I simply don’t see it. 

Even in that state of affairs, I believe the Financial institution of England is perhaps extra cautious than it was final time. The ensuing inflation is proving resilient and the final measurement of 2024 revealed CPI rising to 2.6%.

Rising prices are unwelcome, however larger rates of interest is perhaps no dangerous factor for buyers. These ought to weigh on share costs, creating alternatives to earn larger returns over the long run. 

After all, that relies on which shares buyers select to purchase. However firms that may go on larger prices to prospects may make for very engaging investments. 

I could possibly be fallacious…

With investing, uncertainty is inevitable. Dividends are by no means assured, unusual takeovers occur, and exogenous shocks could cause every kind of macroeconomic instability. 

I could possibly be fallacious, however I don’t see Diageo reducing its dividend, Rightmove being acquired, or rates of interest going to zero. I believe that is about as seemingly as Warren Buffett taking up a disruptive innovation fund.