The Airtel Africa (LSE: AAF) share price surged nearly 10% this morning after interim outcomes revealed a 171% year-on-year improve in revenue after tax. 

The Q3 2025 report highlighted an distinctive achieve of $94m in pre-tax revenue resulting from forex appreciations in Tanzania and Nigeria. Web revenue got here in at $133m. For the 9 months ending 31 December 2024, it posted a 21% improve in fixed forex income. Nonetheless, resulting from forex devaluations, reported income was down 5.8%.

A lot of the expansion got here from sturdy efficiency in its Cell Cash division, which introduced in 29.6% extra income (in fixed forex).

Regardless of the sturdy outcomes, its revenue margin slipped 0.5% and fundamental earnings per share (EPS) fell to six.2c from 7.1c. Earnings earlier than curiosity, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) declined 11.9% in reported forex to $1.68bn, attributed to greater gas prices and decrease income from Nigeria.

General, the outcomes had been nicely obtained, bringing the share price up to 147p — a 25% year-to-date (YTD) achieve.

Rising buyer base

Airtel has been going from power to power currently after a interval of blended efficiency in 2023 and 2024. The comparatively new itemizing loved fast beneficial properties in 2021 however faltered after peaking at round 165p in mid-2022.

Now nearing a 30-month excessive, it might quickly breach that price degree once more. 

Buyer progress has been sturdy, up nearly 8% this quarter, with smartphone penetration up 44.2% and a 32.3% improve in information utilization per buyer. It operates in 14 African nations with a majority market share in Zambia, Tanzania, Seychelles, Congo, Niger, Malawi, Gabon, and Chad.

With this morning’s outcomes, it launched a second $100m share buyback, extending the programme introduced in December final 12 months. The plan is to repurchase roughly 900,000 shares within the coming 12 months. 

International trade dangers

International forex losses stay a key challenge for the corporate, with the devaluation of the Nigeria naira impacting earnings in earlier years. Over the previous two years, the naira has fallen nearly 70% towards the US greenback.

The decline contributed to an $89m loss reported in its 2024 ultimate 12 months outcomes. Within the fourth quarter of 2023, its internet margin fell to -9.3% however has since recovered to 1.98%. The potential for additional affect from Nigeria stays a threat.

Debt stays one other threat affecting the corporate, having risen an additional 7.5% to $5.3bn. The rising value of gas has contributed to its debt, as diesel mills energy a lot of its community infrastructure in distant areas. As geopolitical points proceed to drive up the price of crude oil, this will likely put stress on the corporate’s earnings going ahead.

Challenges forward

Airtel’s restoration lately has been spectacular however many challenges stay. Working in creating international locations with unstable currencies is a key threat that wants cautious administration.

As such, analysts have blended opinions on the inventory, with price targets starting from a 26.5% loss to a 39.8% achieve. On common, a decline of 4.47% is predicted within the coming 12 months.

Nonetheless, with a rising buyer base and robust income, EPS is predicted to succeed in 22p in 2027 — a virtually fourfold improve. As a shareholder, I’ve excessive hopes for the corporate however stay cautious concerning the financial challenges it faces in Africa.