It has been a horrible few years for long-suffering shareholders in luxurious carmaker Aston Martin Lagonda (LSE: AML). The 20% share price fall in 2025 is unhealthy sufficient, however over 5 years the Aston Martin share price has tumbled 84%.

Nonetheless, on the ultimate day of April, the corporate made what I see as a big announcement. Since then the Aston Martin share price has leapt 28% in a matter of weeks. I believe it might go considerably greater from right here.

May there be an finish to money burn?

Again in April, Aston Martin introduced its first quarter outcomes – and they didn’t look that good to me. Revenues and gross revenue each fell year-on-year. The loss earlier than tax shrank significantly in comparison with the prior 12 months interval, however was nonetheless substantial. At £80m, it was equal to round 34% of the £234m income for the quarter.

Regardless of all that although, the corporate maintained what it referred to as its “key financial targets”for 2025: optimistic adjusted EBIT (earnings earlier than curiosity and tax) for the total 12 months and free money circulate era within the second half.

That implies that Aston Martin’s administration has a excessive degree of confidence it would flip free money circulate optimistic within the second half.

One of many issues that has been dragging down the share price is Aston Martin’s massive debt pile and ongoing damaging money circulate. The prospect it’d reverse that helps clarify why the Aston Martin share price is up by over 1 / 4 in below two months.

If there may be extra information displaying the enterprise is on monitor to show money circulate optimistic – after which if it really does I believe it might give an extra substantial enhance to the Aston Martin share price.

Heaps to look ahead to!

Now notice that the corporate is speaking about general money circulate, not simply working money circulate. One solution to flip money circulate optimistic would merely be to situation sufficient new shares (diluting current shareholders) or borrow extra money. Aston Martin had completed each repeatedly since itemizing on the inventory market and will so once more.

However maybe working money flows will rework for the higher. The corporate reckons that the second half — and particularly the fourth quarter — will probably be vital with regards to hitting these targets. An expanded SUV provide, due to the launch of the DBX S, ought to assist.

A key issue must be Aston Martin starting deliveries of its Valhalla supercar within the second half. At a reported beginning gross sales price of round £850k every, the Valhalla might make a big monetary contribution to Aston Martin.

I’m not shopping for (automotive or share!)

Some petrolheads see that price as a relative discount, however I definitely shall not be shopping for a Valhalla.

What concerning the share although? In any case, the Aston Martin share price is in pennies: I might purchase virtually 1m for the price of an entry degree Valhalla!) I do assume we might see a big transfer upwards this 12 months if the agency meets its targets.

For now, I can’t be shopping for. Aston Martin stays closely loss-making and indebted. I’d wish to see laborious proof of improved financials earlier than even desirous about touching the share – not simply an upbeat forecast.