The scale of the autumn in Glencore’s (LSE: GLEN) share price over the previous few years, has taken me fully abruptly. Since topping out at 575p in early 2023, the inventory has fallen 58%. The extent of the sell-off has accelerated lately. 12 months thus far, its down 33%. Having been bullish on the inventory for thus lengthy, is it time for me to promote and transfer on?

Q1 manufacturing

Compounding its issues was the discharge of a disappointing set of manufacturing figures final week (30 April). Copper manufacturing specifically was extraordinarily weak.

Decrease ore mining charges, head grades and general recoveries at its numerous copper mines, resulted in manufacturing coming in at 167.9 kt — a full 30% down on the identical interval final yr. Nonetheless, it didn’t change its full-year steerage. As in 2024, it expects manufacturing to ramp up within the second half.

One beacon although was a robust set of numbers from its steelmaking coal enterprise. The overwhelming majority of its 8.3m tonnes got here from Elk Valley Assets (EVR), which it acquired in July 2024. As globalisation developments reverse, and manufacturing slowly strikes again to the US, I imagine this might turn into a wonderful long-term funding.

Important minerals

In March, the US administration signed an govt order classing just about each base metallic Glencore produces as a vital metallic. As we speak, it’s tariffs which can be proscribing international free commerce. However that’s only one piece of a a lot bigger jigsaw. Nation states are starting to deal with metals as strategic belongings.

Again in February, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), banned the export of cobalt. This was in response to falling costs. Since then the price of the metallic has risen 50%. It’s now contemplating extending the ban.

This issues massively. Cobalt is discovered within the likes of telephones, electrical automobile batteries and wind generators. With out it, planes couldn’t fly. And the DRC mines two-thirds of worldwide manufacturing.

The place is all this heading? Properly, there’s a definite risk that nations resembling DRC may group up with different metal-producing nations and kind a sought of OPEC-type cartel for minerals. This wouldn’t be good for nations such because the US that depend on imports.

Advertising and marketing enterprise

One space of Glencore’s enterprise which may be very troublesome to foretell in the mean time is its advertising and marketing division. On the face of it, falling international financial progress isn’t prone to be excellent for that enterprise. For 2025, the miner expects earnings earlier than curiosity and tax (EBIT) to be “around the middle” of its long-term vary of $2.2bn-$3.2bn.

One factor that I learnt from the extraordinary market dislocation of 2022, is that heightened volatility in commodity markets has the potential to show its advertising and marketing enterprise right into a money producing machine.

Within the brief time period, it wouldn’t shock me if applied tariffs don’t have some impact on commodity provide chains. Bodily commerce movement re-orientation, together with diverting ships in mid-transit, can solely be good for its advertising and marketing enterprise. Long term, the growing strategic significance of metals may very well be very beneficial too.

For traders who can abdomen a heightened stage of volatility of their portfolio, Glencore is actually one to think about. I gained’t be promoting my holding, that’s for positive.