Aston Martin Lagonda‘s (LSE:AML) share price continues to crash and, at 69.7p per share, is down 36.1% because the begin of 2025.

This takes whole losses during the last 12 months to simply shy of 60%. Somebody who parked £10k within the FTSE 250 firm would now have simply £4,308 sitting of their account.

Weak gross sales to China, provide chain disruptions, and excessive money owed have left Aston’s shares floundering. So as to add to the automaker’s woes, new tariffs of 25% on US automobile imports threaten to cripple gross sales in a important market.

But none of this appears to faze Metropolis analysts. Forecasters are unanimous that James Bond’s favorite automobile producer will rise in worth over the subsequent 12 months.

So how real looking are Aston Martin’s share price estimates? And may traders think about shopping for shopping for this beaten-down share for his or her portfolios?

Good worth on paper

Probably the most bullish dealer believes Aston Martin shares will rise 151% over the subsequent 12 months, to £1.75. That is considerably greater than the least optimistic estimate of 79p, although that is nonetheless up 13.5% from present ranges.

The typical price goal amongst eight brokers who examine the share is £1.18 per share. That’s up 69.3% from right now’s ranges.

As I’ve talked about, Aston has quite a lot of obstacles to attempt to overcome. Nonetheless, the motormaker’s followers could argue that that is greater than baked into the present valuation, leaving room for a price rebound if efficiency stabilises and even improves.

The enterprise is predicted to stay loss-making although to 2026, so let’s use the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio as a substitute of the price-to-earnings (P/E) to establish its worth.

With a sub-1 rating of 0.4, Aston shares rating extraordinarily nicely on this worth metric.

Let’s additionally think about the corporate’s price-to-book (P/B) ratio to work out how low-cost it’s. That is primarily based on Aston’s guide worth, which is the same as its property minus its liabilities.

Once more, this is available in at beneath 1.

Are Aston shares a possible Purchase then?

But whereas the Metropolis’s extraordinarily chipper over Aston Martin’s share price prospects, I’m not so optimistic. Not even these low P/S and P/B ratios are sufficient to win me over.

As a automobile fanatic, I like the Warwickshire firm’s luxurious merchandise. To me, Aston symbolises pace, magnificence, and exclusivity. The difficulty is that these aren’t qualities that set it other than the competitors. It has to go wheel to wheel in opposition to different well-known marques like Ferrari, Porsche, Bentley and Lamborghini to win market share.

Robust financial circumstances in its key US and Chinese language markets — which may very well be made significantly worse by the rollout of world commerce tariffs — make Aston’s process of rising gross sales much more difficult.

All that is particularly regarding given the massive money owed Aston has. Web debt was a huge £1.2bn on the finish of December.

The corporate will likely be hoping new product launches gentle a hearth below gross sales numbers. Chief govt Adrian Hallmark has stated its Valhalla hybrid scheduled for launch this 12 months “will help us reposition Aston Martin again.”

However I’m not so positive. On stability, I believe Aston’s share price may stay locked in reverse, so I’d reasonably purchase different UK shares.