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Final week the blue-chip FTSE 100 index hit a brand new all-time excessive.
That may little doubt have had many buyers cheering. However others could also be questioning whether or not it means the index is now overpriced and so primed for a tumble.
Right here is my take — and what it means for my portfolio.
A lot of market uncertainty proper now
Simply as satisfaction comes earlier than a fall, a increase can come earlier than a inventory market crash.
Nevertheless, that increase can final for years and even many years, with file after file doubtlessly being set alongside the way in which.
So, a FTSE 100 file doesn’t essentially point out that we’re on the prime of the market, or maybe even anyplace close to it.
That mentioned, the present geopolitical and financial surroundings is leading to lots of market uncertainty in London and elsewhere.
Issues may go both means from right here
In sensible funding phrases, meaning it’s attainable that the blue-chip index may preserve shifting upwards from right here.
As poor performers threat getting relegated from it whereas fast-growing companies take their place, I do suppose the index is just not proxy for the market general. Certainly, over the previous 5 years the FTSE 100 has moved up 15% whereas the FTSE 250 has fallen 4%.
I believe the blue-chip index would possibly preserve going up and the current excessive suggests substantial confidence amongst not less than some buyers. Nevertheless, I additionally concern that sluggish progress and financial uncertainty may imply that eventually we see a pointy reversal.
I’m largely ignoring the index
Which may matter to me extra if I used to be investing within the FTSE 100 general.
As a substitute, I favor to put money into particular person shares. So the actions of the index as such are usually not that prime on my radar.
Nonetheless, won’t a excessive FTSE 100 price imply that particular person shares are poor worth?
In follow, not essentially.
Inside these 100 shares, at any given second some might look overpriced to me however others may look undervalued. Certainly, that’s how I see it for the time being.
An instance is a share I’ve been shopping for extra of in 2025, after it has fallen 10% for the reason that begin of the yr: JD Sports activities (LSE: JD).
It’s 49% decrease now than it was 5 years in the past. The sportswear retailer has clearly misplaced lots of its shine within the Metropolis. It not has the large money pile it used to. And it has issued a number of revenue warnings and including tons of of latest retailers annually is consuming into earnings.
However I additionally suppose that retailer opening programme may assist gasoline additional progress. The large US acquisition that used up a lot of that huge money pile may too.
Even after the revenue warnings, JD nonetheless expects to ship revenue earlier than tax and adjusting objects of £915—£935m. That makes its market capitalisation of £4.4bn look low cost to me.