Lloyds Banking Group (LSE:LLOY) shares have soared in worth after a sluggish begin to the 12 months. At 55.9p per share, the FTSE 100 financial institution is now 17% dearer than it was on New Yr’s Day.

By comparability, the broader Footsie has risen a extra modest 6%. However I’m not tempted to purchase the financial institution immediately. I truly consider {that a} sharp share price correction might be coming down the road.

Listed below are three explanation why I feel the Lloyds share price might crash.

Hovering impairments

The financial outlook for the UK within the short-to-medium time period stays bleak. Main financial our bodies count on GDP to increase round 1% over the subsequent couple of years. Structural points like excessive public debt, commerce boundaries, and labour shortages imply progress might stay weak past the close to time period, too.

Cyclical shares like Lloyds will possible wrestle to develop revenues on this local weather. However this isn’t the one hazard. Powerful financial situations imply credit score impairments might additionally maintain swelling, even when rates of interest fall.

On the plus facet, Lloyds’ unhealthy loans dropped to £70m in quarter one from £246m a 12 months earlier. But the financial institution isn’t out of the woods. And its large publicity to the mortgage market particularly means the quantity might instantly surge once more.

It’s because mortgage charges will rise for 3m households between now and 2026, in response to the Financial institution of England (BoE). Of this quantity, 400,000 might be paying 50% greater than they at present do, the financial institution says.

As I say, Lloyds is particularly resistant to this menace. It supplies round a fifth of all dwelling loans within the UK.

Margins mashed

Lloyds’ likelihood to develop earnings might be made all of the harder ought to — because the market expects — rates of interest possible start declining from late summer time/early autumn.

Banks make the lion’s share of their income by setting mortgage curiosity at the next fee than what they provide to savers. This is named the web curiosity margin (NIM), and it’s massively delicate to the BoE’s lending benchmark.

Lloyds’ margins are falling even earlier than the BoE has began reducing charges. In quarter one, its NIM fell 27 foundation factors to 2.95%. And so internet curiosity earnings slumped 12%, to £3.1bn.

Formidable rivals

Margin declines might be much more extreme going forwards, and never simply due to rate of interest cuts. Rising competitors from digital and challenger banks can also be heaping stress on the NIMs of established banks.

Fortunately for Lloyds, it has distinctive model power and a big (if declining) presence on the excessive avenue. It subsequently stands a greater likelihood of sustaining and rising its buyer base than many different banks.

Nonetheless, the menace from new entrants remains to be extreme. And the panorama might get much more tough if, as anticipated, they increase their monetary firepower by floating shares. Monzo, Revolut, and Oaknorth are all tipped to launch IPOs sooner fairly than later.

Right here’s what I’m doing

On paper, Lloyds shares nonetheless look low cost regardless of latest features. They commerce on a ahead price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of simply 8.6 instances.

Nonetheless, I feel the dangers of proudly owning the financial institution outweigh the potential advantages. So I’m shopping for different low-cost FTSE 100 shares proper now.