Barclays‘ (LSE: BARC) shares are roaring again after stories that the US has struck a shock commerce take care of China. However the Barclays share price bounce began properly earlier than at present.

When the FTSE 100 closed on 2 April, Barclays was buying and selling at 296.75p. Hours later, Donald Trump dropped the bombshell about his so-called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, and markets fell.

As at all times, The Motley Idiot urged calm. No panic-selling or speeding for the exits. Simply sit tight and scan the marketplace for traditional shopping for alternatives. Anybody who picked Barclays ought to be joyful at present.

By 7 April, with panic nonetheless swirling, its shares had dropped greater than 18% to simply 241.85p. Right this moment, they’re buying and selling at 315.55p, up greater than 30%. That might have turned a £10k funding into round £13k.

Lengthy-term momentum

Lengthy-term traders must also be feeling happy. Barclays shares are up 45% over 12 months, and 191% over 5 years. FTSE banks are lastly displaying sustained robust efficiency, following greater than a decade of post-financial disaster volatility.

But Barclays nonetheless seems surprisingly inexpensive. Its price-to-earnings ratio is simply 8.5. On a price-to-book foundation, it’s solely 0.6. That’s a stable low cost given {that a} determine of 1 is seen as truthful worth.

The dividend yield isn’t huge at 2.66% on a trailing foundation, however forecasts recommend it may develop to 2.89% this yr and three.89% in 2026. That’s not all. The board has pledged £10bn in complete capital returns between now and 2026, largely within the form of share buybacks.

Barclays additionally seems in robust monetary form. In Q1, it posted a return on tangible fairness of 14%, properly above its annual goal. Revenue earlier than tax rose 19% to £2.7bn and complete revenue rose 11% to £7.7bn. It’s additionally raised its full-year revenue forecast to greater than £12.5bn, up from £12.2bn, citing energy in its UK enterprise.

Considerations stay

No funding’s ever risk-free. The commerce deal bounce won’t final. Trump’s unpredictable and additional tariff volatility can’t be dominated out. Markets are nonetheless ready for concrete particulars on US-China talks, and there’s a danger that confidence may fade if readability doesn’t emerge quickly.

Additionally, if rates of interest proceed to fall this might eat into internet curiosity margins, an important measure of banking profitability. And naturally, the UK financial system’s nonetheless in a large number.

Dividends, progress and buybacks

Even with these uncertainties, there’s so much to love right here. Of the 18 analysts monitoring Barclays, 14 fee it a Sturdy Purchase, three say Maintain, and just one’s unimpressed, naming it a Sturdy Promote.

The 16 analysts providing one-year share price forecasts have a median goal of 361p. If that proves proper, it could imply a 14% acquire from present ranges. Forecasts can by no means be relied upon and this does affirm my suspicions that Barclays shares must gradual sooner or later. No one ought to count on one other 30% soar any time quickly. That form of surge is uncommon and unpredictable.

However given Barclays’ stable efficiency, monetary energy and amenable valuation, I believe it’s a inventory traders would possibly nonetheless take into account shopping for at present.