Resurgent gross sales have propelled Marks and Spencer Group (LSE:MKS) shares sharply increased since October 2022. Earlier than the current cyberattack (extra on this later), they hit their costliest for nearly a decade at 417.8p every in late April.

But regardless of these positive aspects, somebody who purchased the FTSE 100 retailer 10 years in the past would nonetheless be nursing some vital losses.

At 345.4p, Marks and Spencer’s share price is 36.7% decrease than it was at this level in 2015, at 546.1p. It implies that £10,000 price of shares purchased again then would now be price £6,328.

Due to some dividend funds delivered in that point — these equate to 86.23p per share — somebody who invested £10k within the retailer would have additionally obtained £1,582 in passive revenue. That might have improved their complete return to £7,910, or -20.9%.

That’s a fairly shoddy outcome, I’m certain you’d agree. However with its revamped clothes technique paying off and its digital proposition delivering the products, might Marks and Spencer outperform the UK’s large- and mid-cap shares trying forward?

And will I contemplate shopping for the retailer for my portfolio?

Optimistic price forecasts

Sadly, share price forecasts aren’t out there for the shares for the following decade. Nevertheless, they’re out there for the following 12 months. And encouragingly, they recommend the retailer will maintain its share price restoration going.

Because the graph exhibits, the 11 analysts with scores on the inventory are united of their optimism. One particularly bullish forecaster expects the retailer to march to new multi-year highs of 450p.

Ought to I purchase?

On the one hand, it’s maybe no shock that Metropolis brokers are bullish on the Footsie firm. The restoration that long-term buyers have been desperately looking for is lastly right here and continues to ship in spades.

Clothes, residence and sweetness gross sales rose 1.9% on a like-for-like foundation within the 13 weeks to twenty-eight December, newest financials in January confirmed. Corresponding meals revenues in the meantime have been up 8.9% yr on yr.

The core clothes division is putting the best stability of favor, worth and high quality, and continues to realize market share. And heavy funding in on-line can be paying off, with web gross sales rising 11.7% within the final quarter.

Nevertheless, I’m not satisfied the shares are a purchase for me proper now. Its failure to supply full-year steering in January underlined rising uncertainty as shoppers really feel the pinch. The retailer additionally faces ongoing aggressive threats, and particularly in meals the place the UK’s main supermarkets are embarking on a brand new price conflict.

I’m additionally involved concerning the implications of the cyberattack final month that halted on-line orders. Within the close to time period, this might take an enormous chew out of income (web gross sales accounted for 34% of group gross sales within the January quarter). As I sort, on-line orders are nonetheless paused.

And the harm may very well be much more extreme over the long run. On Tuesday (13 Might), the enterprise stated “some of their personal customer data has been taken.” The reputational harm to the M&S model may very well be vital and immediate web shoppers to go elsewhere.

Whereas they’re not with out potential, on stability I’d nonetheless quite go away these shares on the shelf proper now.