Up till the beginning of 2014, no FTSE 100 firm had delivered a superior return to JD Sports activities Trend (LSE:JD.) shares on a 10-year foundation. Fast earnings development meant the sports activities/athleisure big had delivered a shocking total return of 1,068%.

Nevertheless, a pointy price slide since final autumn means long-term returns have tumbled nearer to the UK blue-chip common.

Right this moment, JD Sports activities’ share price sits at 77.5p per share, up from 23p a decade in the past. That represents a 237% enhance, that means £10,000 of inventory purchased again then would now be value £33,695.

The sportswear retailer has by no means been probably the most beneficiant dividend payer. But with shareholder payouts added to these share price features, somebody who parked £10k in JD would have loved a complete return of £35,539, or 255.4%.

That’s far above the 85.1% complete return the broader FTSE 100’s delivered in that point. But JD’s share price is way decrease than the report peak of 235.7p struck in late 2021, and is in peril of additional slippage.

What can buyers anticipate going ahead? And may they contemplate shopping for JD shares right now?

Robust forecasts

Sadly, price forecasts aren’t out there past the following 12 months. However estimates for that interval are constructive throughout the board, regardless of the risk current gross sales weak point may persist.

Proper now, 17 analysts have rankings on the Footsie inventory. And the common price forecast is 114p, suggesting a break via £1 for the primary time since late 2024.

There are some vital dangers to those bubbly forecasts nevertheless. One is that weak demand for bigger-ticket objects like costly trainers may proceed as commerce tariffs sap financial development.

The opportunity of a US recession is particularly regarding for the retailer too. Following its acquisition of US retailer Hibbett final summer time, JD sources 40% of revenues from the States, making it its single most necessary territory.

Contemporary commerce obstacles additionally threaten extreme provide chain disruptions and better prices. Keep in mind that a considerable amount of its items are manufactured in Asian nations like China.

Are the shares a possible purchase?

But whereas the agency might face large challenges within the brief time period — it’s forecast a fall in like-for-like revenues this monetary 12 months (to January 2026) — I nonetheless really feel JD’s a gorgeous inventory to contemplate, and particularly at present costs.

Latest share price weak point means it trades on a ahead price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.4 occasions, which is effectively beneath the 10-year common of 16-17 occasions. Whereas this pretty displays the corporate’s near-term troubles, I imagine it may additionally present a springboard for JD’s shares to rebound.

The enterprise is shrewdly scaling again capital expenditure within the close to time period. Nevertheless, it plans to proceed increasing aggressively, including round 100 web new shops this 12 months alone. It will go away the agency in a robust place to get well when market situations enhance.

Over the long run, the athleisure market’s nonetheless tipped for sturdy development. Analysts at Fortune Enterprise Insights reckon it’s going to broaden at a compound annual charge of 9.82% via to 2032. With robust relationships and unique agreements with business giants resembling Nike and Adidas, I really feel JD’s well-placed to capitalise on this chance and is value a more in-depth look.