BAE Programs (LSE: BA) shares have soared this yr. Since I maintain the FTSE 100 defence contractor in my self-invested private pension (SIPP), its success has been a pleasure to look at. Particularly given the mayhem elsewhere.

This follows an underwhelming 2024. I purchased the inventory simply earlier than final yr’s dip (frustratingly), however I’m not complaining now.

The BAE Programs share price has been one of many UK’s star performers in 2025. Since markets opened in January, the shares have climbed an astonishing 48%. 

Meaning a £10,000 funding just some months in the past would now be price £14,800. Not unhealthy in any respect.

Can this FTSE 100 inventory preserve flying?

Apparently, over a full 12-month interval, the shares are ‘only’ up 30%. That displays final yr’s drop.

The one purpose I may see for the shares falling is that they’d raced slightly forward of themselves. Information that Europe has to step up and spend more cash on defence to please Donald Trump and deter Vladimir Putin gave buyers a brand new purpose to purchase.

Optimistic 2024 outcomes, revealed on 19 February, gave them one other incentive. Gross sales rose 14% to £28.3bn, with underlying income up the identical share to high £3bn. 

Order backlog hit a file £77.8bn, which the CEO Charles Woodburn known as “exceptional” for its visibility.

Inevitably, Trump’s commerce tariffs may trigger complications. BAE equipment usually combines parts from US corporations, and if cross-border provide chains get snarled up, issues may get messy. 

BAE is investing in additional US-based manufacturing however that’s costly and would possibly show pointless if Trump relents. There are stories of an early UK commerce deal, which can give the inventory one other enhance.

The US greenback is one other fear. Almost half of BAE’s revenues come from the US, and if commerce wars hit the buck, as some suspect, these earnings may take a success as soon as transformed into sterling. A mere 5 cent drop within the greenback can knock £525m off gross sales, so this issues.

Development, dividends and buybacks

After the latest rally, the shares are buying and selling at round 25 occasions earnings. That’s on the excessive facet, however not outrageous. Anybody contemplating the inventory as we speak ought to perceive that the largest positive factors could have already got been made.

The most important wildcard is peace. A real, lasting decision in Ukraine can be welcome information for the world, however probably unhealthy information for BAE’s order pipeline.

Frankly, it appears as far-off as ever.

BAE isn’t an enormous dividend payer. The present trailing yield is simply 1.94%, nicely beneath the FTSE 100 common of round 3.6%. Nonetheless, that’ partly as a result of the share price has been rising so strongly. It’s up 207% over 5 years.

The board has a progressive dividend coverage. It raised its payout by 10% in its 2024 outcomes. The corporate returned almost £1.5bn to shareholders by way of dividends and share buybacks final yr.

I feel BAE Programs stays a core a part of a balanced portfolio of FTSE 100 shares. However buyers contemplating the inventory ought to train slightly warning. After the robust run, issues may gradual for some time. Identical to they did final yr.